Market Overview
The SPY is on 8 consecutive closes below the 21 EMA and today is shaping up as a potential 9th. Price is sitting right at 762.50 with the 21 EMA at 762.94, so we’re essentially testing that level from below right now. Yesterday’s session was rough, trading down to 749.60 intraday before recovering to close at 754, and today’s bounce back to 762.50 is interesting but we need a clean close above 762.94 to change the tone. The 8 EMA at 760.93 and 50 day at 759.53 are converging just below current price, so this whole 759-763 zone is a make-or-break cluster. VIX at 15.7 is not flashing panic, which keeps the door open for a recovery, but the burden of proof is on the bulls here.
Top Setups — 2 Signals
DVN — BULL · LARGE
Calls Bought · Strike: 50.0 · Exp: Nov26 · 7000 contracts · $1.7M
DVN is sitting just above the 21 EMA at 48.16 with the 8 EMA at 49.02 right overhead, and the Fib pocket at 47.86-48.04 just got cleared, which puts price in a constructive spot. Someone dropped $1.7M into November 50 calls, 7,000 contracts, targeting a move back toward the recent highs near 51.56. Energy is holding up relative to the broader market and the weekly structure shows higher highs and higher lows with both the 50 and 200 week MAs in good shape. If you want defined risk, the long call lines up with the institutional trade. If you want to lean in at current levels, the risk reversal structure gives you long exposure with the short put anchored near the 21 EMA at 48.16.
DHR — BULL · LARGE
Calls Bought · Strike: 250.0 · Exp: Jan27 · 5500 contracts · $2.4M
DHR is trading at 211.74 with the 8 EMA at 207.58 and the 21 EMA at 207.33 both underneath, meaning price has some room before it tests those levels. A $2.4M bet on January 250 calls tells you someone is positioning for a sustained move higher over the next few months. The stock is above its 50 day and 200 day on the daily chart and XLV is holding up fine relative to SPY. The 8 EMA around 207.50 is your nearest dynamic support if we get any pullback, and that would be a reasonable spot to add or initiate if you want a better entry than chasing here.
Unusual Activity
🔔 SDGR
Calls Bought · Strike: 25.0 · Exp: Mar27 · 837 contracts · $409K
Someone bought 837 contracts of SDGR March 27 calls at the 25 strike for roughly $409K, which is a meaningful bet on a name that doesn’t see this kind of structured flow often. The chart is bullish, with price well above the 8 EMA at 22.77, the 21 EMA at 20.79, the 50 day at 18.14, and the 200 day at 15.29, so every key moving average is stacked and pointing the right direction. This is a higher-beta setup and the call buyer is clearly positioning for a continued run with several months of runway.
Schrödinger (SDGR) is a computational drug discovery and materials science company that sells physics-based simulation software - its flagship products include Maestro, Glide, FEP+, and LiveDesign - to pharmaceutical, biotech, and materials customers, while also running its own proprietary and partnered drug pipeline. The company sits at the intersection of AI, physics-based modeling, and drug discovery, giving it a dual-revenue model: recurring software subscriptions (now transitioning to a hosted/cloud delivery structure) and milestone-bearing collaboration agreements with the likes of Eli Lilly, Takeda, Novartis, and Otsuka. The most material recent context for traders is a 12% gap higher on September 15, 2026 to a new 52-week high, fueled by surging investor interest in AI-enabled drug discovery platforms - this options flow hit the tape two days later, with the stock still running.
Crime signal: MEDIUM — The flow arrived two days after a sharp 12% breakout to a new 52-week high in a name with near-zero prior options activity, the two large call purchases were separated by under three minutes suggesting a single coordinated buyer, and Q3 earnings - a known binary event - are expected in approximately seven weeks, creating a plausible window where advance knowledge of a partnership milestone or clinical update could rationally drive aggressive accumulation before a public announcement.
🔔 JOBY
Calls Bought · Strike: 8.0 · Exp: Jan28 · 4000 contracts · $696K
JOBY saw a $696K print in January 2028 calls at the 8 strike, 4,000 contracts, which is a long-dated bet on a name that rarely shows up in structured flow. The chart is a bit of a mixed picture right now, with price below the 21 EMA at 6.76 and the 50 day at 7.33, though the 8 EMA at 6.34 is close to current price. The January 2028 expiration gives this trade a long runway to work, so whoever put this on is not worried about near-term technical noise.
Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) is a Santa Cruz, California-based company developing an all-electric vertical takeoff and landing air taxi for commercial passenger service, with plans to both operate its own service and sell aircraft to third-party operators. The stock has been under pressure as the company trades well below its 2021 SPAC-era highs, though it remains one of the most advanced eVTOL developers in the world by certification progress. Two material events have landed in quick succession: Joby reported Q2 2026 results on August 5 that included a raised full-year revenue outlook, and on August 11 the company announced a $500 million acquisition of Resonant Sciences, a profitable defense technology firm, a deal that initially sent shares lower.
Crime signal: LOW — The August flow was flagged as stock-tied, and the September flow lands roughly five weeks after a major public acquisition announcement and a raised revenue outlook, both of which provide a clear, publicly documented thesis for a directional position without requiring advance knowledge of any non-public event.
