Market Overview
SPY is below the 21 EMA again and today’s drop put it right on top of the 50 day at 758.27. The 8 EMA has now crossed below the 21 EMA, spread flipped negative at -0.18, confirming the short term trend has turned down. Price took out last week’s lows without much of a bounce, so sellers are still in control here. VIX at 17.3 is still relatively calm, no panic yet, but until SPY reclaims 765 this is a downtrend and the 50 day is the level to watch for a bigger break toward the 200 day near 711.
Institutional flow stayed heavily bullish across tech and semis today, with large put sellers in MU, AAPL, and TSM collecting premium well below spot, and call buyers in ANET and CRWD reaching for strikes above current highs. The tone across the board is longer-dated, conviction-driven positioning rather than short term hedging.
