Apologies I am late posting this - we had a family dental appointment and I just got back home.
Market Overview
The SPY is pushing to 771.39 this morning, now in its 3rd consecutive session trading above the 21 EMA after reclaiming that level on Monday. The 8 EMA at 768.28 and 21 EMA at 768.74 are nearly converged, which tells you the trend is still fragile and not yet confirmed as a clean breakout. Two closes above the 21 is a start, but we really want to see follow-through above the 771-773 range where price has stalled twice already this month. VIX at 17.2 is calm, not screaming danger, but the 50 day at 766.81 is close enough that a flush back there would bring the whole 21 EMA reclaim into question fast.
The dominant theme in morning flow is a massive bearish SPX positioning, with two risk reversals totaling over $163M in notional defending the 8000P strike for November, the largest prints of the day by a wide margin. QQQ is seeing bearish flow as well, both puts bought and a risk reversal on the 725 strike, reinforcing the index hedge theme. On the bull side, SNDK is getting consistent accumulation across three separate bullish risk reversal prints totaling roughly $18M, and GOOG and MSFT are seeing targeted near-term call buying ahead of earnings.
Here are some interesting trades for today:
NBIS
Seems like neoclouds aren’t dead yet! Lots of dip buying today. When these high beta names get beaten up you really need to be careful not to get caught in a squeeze.
UBER
Big trade in terms of volume but less than $1 m premium. Earnings are November 4, 2026
SHOP
Earnings November 3, 2026
Also a hit in my momentum scanner for mega cap
STX
GLD
BSX
Another large trade in terms of volume but only $1 m in premium
TER
This was a trade I took today after shorting it into earnings yesterday and then closing out first thing this morning. 30 Oct 26 300 P and 30 Oct 26 305 P
