Market Overview
The SPY is holding above the 21 EMA today after closing just below it yesterday, so this is still very much a prove-it moment. SPCX earnings were the catalyst for the rally today. The 8 EMA and 21 EMA are sitting nearly on top of each other right now, only a 50-cent spread, which tells you the market is coiled and needs to pick a direction. Current price at 772.33 is right in that zone, and we want to see a strong close here to build confidence that last week’s ugliness from 778 down to 763 is actually over. VIX at 16.7 is calm enough, but one more weak close and we’re back to questioning whether this bounce has any legs.
The dominant theme in morning flow is heavy SPX downside hedging, with multiple bearish risk reversals totaling well over $400M in notional across Mar27, Dec26, and Nov26 expirations. The size and consistency of those prints are hard to ignore, and the near-term QQQ put buying for October 30th expiry adds a shorter-fuse bearish lean on top of the macro hedges. On the other side, there are pockets of bull flow in NET, TSLA, LRCX, and INTC, but those are smaller in aggregate and read more like individual name conviction than a broad market risk-on signal.
Other notable trades today:
Big GLXY bull call spread. Lot of action in this name this week.
I thought you would also like to see the weeklies in the database for this week:
