Market Overview
The SPY is sitting right on the 21 EMA today , so this is a key moment. You can thank a hot CPI report for that and more rate hikes are now on the table! We’ve had a strong run from early October, pushing from the low 760s to near 779, and today’s pullback to 770.83 is testing that 21 EMA at 770.91 almost to the penny. The 8 EMA at 774.44 is still above, so the short-term stack is technically intact but starting to compress. The 50 day at 767.41 is the next meaningful support if we don’t hold here. VIX at 16.2 is calm, so this looks more like a routine test than a breakdown, but we need a close back above the 21 to keep the bulls in control.
The AI sector got hit today which has compounded the whole hot CPI report. The catalyst was CRWV and a report that the yield on its $1.25 bn bonds due in 2032 touched 15%. You should note, however, that one of the biggest trades this morning was a CRWV bull put spread. Since then the flow has been very intense and varied.
Here is a snap shot of what I have already classified today in the Discord.
