Market Overview
SPY is now on its 3rd consecutive close below the 21 EMA, sitting at 760.82 while the 8 EMA and 21 EMA have converged almost on top of each other at 764.43 and 764.17. That convergence is not bullish, it tells you momentum has stalled and the trend is losing structure. Today the low touched 758.79 below the 50 day at 761.50, so that level is doing some work for now. If the 50 day gives way, there is not a lot of clean support until you get further down the chart. VIX at 17.4 is not screaming panic yet, but the price action here is soft and you want to see a reclaim of the 21 EMA with conviction before getting aggressive on the long side. You need to be very careful here. Rates and oil are creating a lot of headwinds here so I would be very careful about adding , particularly with important data tomorrow.
Top Setups — 5 Signals
TSM — BULL · MEGA
Calls Bought · Strike: 480.0 · Exp: Jun27 17th · 4000 contracts · $21.4M
Someone put $21.4M into TSM June 480 calls, 4,000 contracts, and that is not a casual trade. Price is at 453.80, well above the 21 EMA at 439.78 and the 50 day at 429.30, with the full EMA stack in clean bullish alignment. IV rank is only 13% so buying calls here is relatively cheap from a premium standpoint. If you want a defined-risk long, the straight call purchase works in this environment. If you want to finance it, the 3:2 ratio structure sells puts down near the 21 EMA and lets you participate for a net credit, with breakeven at 427.22.
SNDK — BULL · MEGA
Puts Sold · Strike: 1590.0 · Exp: Jan27 · 100 contracts · $1.7M
SNDK has the 8 EMA at 1737 and the 21 EMA at 1690, with price at 1731 holding above both in a solid EMA stack. The institutional trade here is a put sell at the 1590 strike, collecting $165.50 with breakeven down at 1424.50, well below the 50 day at 1536. IV is elevated at 75.8% but the rank is only 11%, so premium sellers are not getting paid as much as the raw IV suggests. The conservative strike at 1530 keeps you near the 50 SMA and still brings in solid premium if you want more cushion.
AAPL — BULL · MAG7
Puts Sold · Strike: 320.0 · Exp: Dec27 · 800 contracts · $2.2M
AAPL is trading at 326.59, right between the 50 day at 322.03 and the 21 EMA at 330.42. The institutional flow is 800 contracts of December 2027 puts sold at the 320 strike, $2.2M notional, a bet that AAPL holds above that level over the coming months. IV rank at 64% makes put selling attractive here since you are collecting above-average premium for AAPL. The 320 put lines up right below the 50 day, giving that strike a logical structural defense, and the conservative 310 put sits near the 100 day for even more buffer.
LRCX — BULL · MEGA
Puts Sold · Strike: 320.0 · Exp: Jan27 · 500 contracts · $1.7M
LRCX is one of the cleaner charts in semis right now, sitting at 332.78 with the 8 EMA at 317 and 21 EMA at 308, both well below price. The put selling here targets the 320 strike for January, essentially defending near the 8 EMA level with a breakeven down at 286.80. IV rank at 24% just clears the threshold for large-cap put selling and the weekly structure shows higher highs and higher lows, which supports the bullish positioning. The conservative 300 put sits right near the 21 EMA and collects solid premium with a lot of room to breathe.
