Daily Morning Brief; June 25, 2026
Market Overview
The SPY is going for its 3rd straight close below the 21 EMA at 739.45 and that’s not what bulls want to see. We’ve got the 8 EMA at 738.37 sitting just above the 21 with the spread converging bearish, so a cross down is right around the corner. The good news is the 50 day at 732.07 is holding underneath us, and price bounced off the 729.60 low today. Watch that 50 day closely. Lose it and this gets ugly, hold it and we can chop our way back to the 21. VIX at 18.8 isn’t screaming panic yet.
Dark pool flow leans defensive this morning with two big SPY sell prints near 733 and an XLF sell block, plus rotation out of growth via the VOOG sale. There’s some safety positioning too with GLD getting sold while LQD is being bought, so it’s a mixed risk tone. Single name selling in NVS and DHR stands out on the healthcare side, with BUD the lone large buy print.
Top Setups — 5 Signals
TSM — BULL · MEGA
Puts Sold · Strike: 350.0 · Exp: Jul26 31st · 6020 contracts · $2.2M
TSM is running cleanly above the 21 EMA at 431.48 with price at 440.99 and the 8 EMA at 441.09 right underneath. This is a textbook uptrend stack with weekly higher highs and higher lows, sitting well above the 50 day at 410.86. Institutions sold the Jul 350 puts for $2.2M, way below current price, which is a high conviction bet this thing keeps grinding higher. Use the 8 EMA as your closer support reference rather than waiting for a pullback all the way to the 21
