Market Overview
SPY is at 765.29 today, slipping back below the 8 EMA at 767.36 but holding above the 21 EMA at 764.92, so the stack stays intact after 7 straight closes above that level. This is the first real give-back since the run off the 8/20 low, and it looks more like digestion than damage given the 50 day is still climbing underneath at 754.33. VIX sitting at 15.1 tells you nobody’s panicking here, this is just a normal pause inside an uptrend. As long as we hold above 764.92 the trend structure is fine, a close back below the 21 with any conviction is the first sign something’s changing.
Energy is dominating today’s call buying with CVX, FCX, XOM and COP all seeing large multi-thousand contract call purchases in November and December expiries, all part of the same broad bullish tilt showing up across sectors. MDB flow is a large short put sale into earnings, a bet that the recent run higher holds even through the print. HELE stands out on the bell side with a chunky long-dated Jan27 call buy, a name that rarely sees flow like this.
Top Setups — 5 Signals
CVX — BULL · MEGA
Calls Bought · Strike: 230.0 · Exp: Nov26 · 9996 contracts · $2.8M
This one’s already running, price at 204.84 is well clear of both the 8 EMA at 201.94 and the 21 EMA at 198.13, with the weekly trend confirmed by higher highs and higher lows. The 8 EMA is your nearer support now, not the 21, and the call buyers here are positioning in November with size, betting the energy leg keeps working while IV rank sits at zero, which is about as cheap as calls get on this name.
