Market Pulse
SPY is printing its 8th consecutive close below the 21 EMA, a streak that defines the current structure as a downtrend by any reasonable measure. Today’s +1.13% pop puts price at 762.60, squeezing back toward the 21 EMA at 762.95 but not through it. The 8 EMA at 760.95 has been reclaimed intraday. Bulls need a clean close above 762.95 to start reversing the damage.
QQQ finally clawed back above the 21 EMA yesterday and is following through today at 716.92, up 1.73%. The 8 EMA at 711.43 and 21 EMA at 712.61 are both below price now, which is a cleaner setup than SPY shows. One close above does not confirm a trend change, but the structure here is less broken than the broader market.
VIX 15.44 (-12.82%)
Opening
Bullish premium leads at $256.2M versus $150.4M bearish, a net $105.8M bull lean. Semis dominate the buy side with MU, MRVL, SOXX, and NVDA combining for over $67M. The bear side is more scattered across telecom, cybersecurity, and international names.
