Market Pulse
What a mess in the markets today! The day started with a global bond scare made worse by comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and oil spiking. Then we got relief from an okay 30 year UST auction (phew) and then out of the blue we got carpet bombed early afternoon after it was revealed that OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate is roughly $50 billion, which is about $20 billion short of the $70 billion figures circulating in prior media reports.
SPY is printing its 5th consecutive close above the 21 EMA, holding a clean stack with price above all key MAs. The 8 EMA at 772.43 is acting as near-term support on today’s -0.42% pull. Gap between the 50 SMA at 765.51 and current price is wide enough to absorb further softness without breaking structure. Bulls remain in control of the tape.
QQQ is on a 16-session streak above the 21 EMA but is pulling harder today at -1.34%, slipping below the 8 EMA at 749.23. Price at 747.58 is still well above the 21 EMA at 738.50, so structure is intact despite the intraday weakness. A close back above the 8 EMA keeps this trend clean. Bears need a break of 738.50 to shift the conversation.
VIX 15.41 (+2.19%)
Opening
Bullish premium at $269.8M is more than double the bearish side at $116.9M, producing a $152.9M net bull read. Semis are driving the bullish conviction with MU, INTC, and AMD combining for over $54M. Bearish flow is scattered with no single sector dominating the sell side.
