The SPY is below the 21 EMA and today it’s trading below the 50 day, which sits at 768.53. That’s a key level to watch into the close. The 8 EMA at 772.25 and 21 EMA at 770.57 are still in a bullish stack above price, but the bears have short-term momentum. VIX at 19.24 isn’t screaming panic, so this looks more like a big shakeout than a total breakdown, but we need a reclaim of the 50 EMA and the 21 EMA soon.

On a day like to day I am not going to post much flow. Really this is a day to sit on your hands as we are seeing a continued aggressive unwind in semis and oil is red.

Notwithstanding this people are buying the dip aggressively in semis

Top Setups — 1 Signal

PBR — BULL · LARGE

Calls Bought · Strike: 26.0 · Exp: Dec26 · 40000 contracts · $6.9M

Someone put $6.9M into 40,000 December 26 calls on PBR, and that’s the kind of size you don’t ignore. This is just one data point - the flow today has been relentless (see below). The stock is already extended well above the 21 EMA at 23.38, with the 8 EMA at 24.98 acting as the closer support level, and price sitting at 25.58 just under the 20-day high of 25.96. XLE is outperforming SPY by 4% and the weekly structure is clean, so if PBR can push through that 25.96 level, this call flow looks well-positioned for a run.

SPY is just one close above the 21 EMA, so this streak is barely established. Price is trading below the 8 EMA at 773.64, which is near-term resistance. The 50 SMA at 767.47 is holding as support below. Bulls need follow-through here or this 21 EMA reclaim fails quickly.

QQQ is two closes below the 21 EMA and the 8 EMA is well above price at 740.08, showing the short-term trend has rolled over. Price is sitting just above the 50 SMA at 726.41, which is the line in the sand. A break there puts QQQ in a structurally weak position with the next meaningful support far below.

VIX 16.46 (-2.43%)

Opening

Bullish premium dominates at $477.4M versus $165.1M bearish, a nearly 3-to-1 ratio. Semis are driving the bull side hard with SMH, MU, and NBIS accounting for over $130M combined. Bearish flow is light and scattered with no single name exceeding $8.5M.

Read more

Another chaotic day in the markets with narratives changing by the minute. Yet again the KOSPI got smashed overnight and then economic data came in hot for the second time this week. This market is very hard to trade at the moment - we almost have news and event overflow and quite honestly I am surprised that the VIX hasn’t responded more. Mid terms coming up, hot inflation data, war with Iran escalating with regional neighbors getting hit, Ukraine still an issue with Russian energy assets being targeted and oil moving up. It’s not good and risk assets are getting rinsed as a result.

The SPY is now on 2 consecutive closes below the 21 EMA, and today’s session tested as low as 764.44 before bouncing to 770.46 - almost dead on the 21 EMA at 770.77. That’s a razor-thin potential close so far and not a convincing reclaim. The 8 EMA is above at 773.35 and price is still underneath it, so the short-term stack is technically broken. VIX at 16.9 isn’t screaming panic, but we need a clean close back above both the 21 EMA and the 8 EMA to get bullish again. Watch tomorrow’s open closely - another close below 770 keeps the bears in control.

Read more

The bullish options names from yesterday are tracking solidly with an average gain of 2.2%, led by WHR and LLY pushing above 4%, though the broader participation remains modest with most names in the 2-3% range. The bearish names are delivering sharper follow-through, averaging a 6.1% decline with all 15 names negative and VIAV, HUT, and APLD all down roughly 9%, showing that downside conviction is outpacing upside momentum. The divergence suggests selective strength in mega-cap names like LLY and NFLX rather than broad-based buying.

See how cleanly everything is curated and classified.

Read more

SPY printed its first close below the 21 EMA today and is sitting just above the 50 SMA at 768.58. Price needs to reclaim 771.25 to stabilize the structure. A second consecutive close below the 21 EMA keeps the bears in control of this tape.

QQQ is down nearly 2% and trading well below both the 8 EMA at 743.53 and the 21 EMA at 739.49. First close below the 21 EMA and today the index is already pressing toward the 50 SMA at 726.18. The gap between current price and both short-term EMAs is wide and getting worse. This is the weaker index on the day by a clear margin.

VIX 16.87 (+10.48%)

Opening

Total bullish premium of $414M swamps the bearish side at $192.1M, giving a net bull read of $221.9M. Semis dominate the buy side with INTC, TSM, AVGO, and SMH all printing large blocks. The bear flow is scattered across credit, crypto mining, and a handful of single names with no single dominant theme.

Read more

The SPY is sitting right on the 21 EMA today , so this is a key moment. You can thank a hot CPI report for that and more rate hikes are now on the table! We’ve had a strong run from early October, pushing from the low 760s to near 779, and today’s pullback to 770.83 is testing that 21 EMA at 770.91 almost to the penny. The 8 EMA at 774.44 is still above, so the short-term stack is technically intact but starting to compress. The 50 day at 767.41 is the next meaningful support if we don’t hold here. VIX at 16.2 is calm, so this looks more like a routine test than a breakdown, but we need a close back above the 21 to keep the bulls in control.

The AI sector got hit today which has compounded the whole hot CPI report. The catalyst was CRWV and a report that the yield on its $1.25 bn bonds due in 2032 touched 15%. You should note, however, that one of the biggest trades this morning was a CRWV bull put spread. Since then the flow has been very intense and varied.

Here is a snap shot of what I have already classified today in the Discord.

Read more

SPY is flat on the session, sitting above all major moving averages with price, 8 EMA, and 21 EMA all stacked in bullish order. The 21 EMA streak hits 8 consecutive closes today. The spread between price and the 200 SMA is over 57 points, showing how extended this run has become. No technical damage here.

QQQ is pressing 19 consecutive closes above the 21 EMA, though today’s price action has slipped below the 8 EMA for the first time in that stretch. The 8 EMA at 747.70 is now acting as overhead resistance on an intraday basis. Structure remains intact above the 21 EMA at 740.54. Watch that level closely if selling continues.

VIX 15.27 (+0.39%)

Opening

Bullish premium dominates at $283M versus $164.3M bearish, producing a net bull read of $118.7M. META and TSLA lead the buy side with a combined $32.9M. The bearish side is top-heavy with SPCX pulling $29.4M alone, followed by AAPL at $12.8M.

Options Flow Heat Map

Dark Pool Heat Map

Read more

Access the Discord via WHOP

Access the Discord via WHOP

The SPY is looking for its 8 consecutive close above the 21 EMA and the trend is clearly intact. Price is sitting at 776.62 with the 8 EMA right underneath at 775.17, acting as the nearest dynamic support. Today is a mild pullback day after a strong run - the KOSPI was down again overnight and Memory stocks are struggling again. However, nothing about this action looks broken. The 21 EMA at 770.79 is well below price and the full stack, 8, 21, 50, 200, is cleanly ordered. VIX at 15.4 is calm and not warning of anything, so dips toward the 8 EMA are the spot to watch.

META is strong again today - we have been seeing very bullish option flow and dark pool flow in my Discord which is very supportive of its move today

Read more

I score flow too as it comes in - see above. This is the type of thing you get in my full trading platform. Just so much.

Read more

SPY sits on 7 consecutive closes above the 21 EMA, and price is holding the stack cleanly with the 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, and 200 SMA all aligned below. The spread between price and the 200 SMA is nearly 58 points, which reflects a sustained trend with no meaningful compression yet. Today’s print is essentially flat at -0.06%, so bulls are defending without giving anything back. The structure remains intact.

QQQ is on 18 consecutive closes above the 21 EMA and every key moving average is stacked in order below price. The 8 EMA at 748.87 is the only level above current price, so today’s -0.70% close puts QQQ back below the short-term ribbon. That is a minor crack in an otherwise clean trend. Bears need follow-through to make anything of it.

VIX 15.21 (+2.49%)

Opening

Total bullish premium crushed bearish by nearly 4-to-1, with $259.4M flowing to the upside against $66.6M on the bear side. META and NVDA led bulls with $35.1M and $23.9M respectively. Bearish flow was concentrated in semiconductors with MU and SMH topping that side.

Read more

The SPY is sitting on 6 consecutive closes above the 21 EMA and the trend is clean. Price is at 779.05 with the 8 EMA at 774.96 and the 21 EMA at 770.30, so the stack is intact and there is meaningful separation between all three levels. VIX at 15.1 tells you the market is not pricing in any fear right now. This is a bull trend until the chart says otherwise, and the 8 EMA is your first line of defense on any intraday dip.

The main issues here are AI names getting smacked overnight with the KOSPI down 3% overnight and yet again Trump is not managing to keep control of oil, which is up over 2% today. So once again we have a day of chop and Bessent still has the rates market to deal with. Not much in the way of interesting flow today other than some mildly interesting flow in VRT and CCJ. There was also a big bullish GOOG trade today, that followed more bullish flow that we saw on Friday.

This is how the live flow comes into the live flow channel in my Discord. It also shows live in the flow database/dashboard.

Read more

Read more

SPY is printing its 6th consecutive close above the 21 EMA, a clean trend by any measure. Price sits above all key moving averages with the 8 EMA at 773.80 acting as the nearest support level to watch. The spread between the 50 SMA and current price is over 12 points, showing the bull run has legs. No cracks in the structure today.

QQQ is on a 17-session streak above the 21 EMA, which is a dominant trend by any standard. Price at 751.27 is well above the 8 EMA at 749.68, keeping the short-term structure tight and healthy. The 50 SMA sits 27 points below current price, and the 200 SMA is nearly 81 points beneath. This tape is not arguing with the bulls.

VIX 14.84 (-3.70%)

Opening

Bullish premium is running more than 2.4 to 1 over bearish, with $234.6M versus $96.9M on the bear side. EWZ leads all flow at $23.0M bullish, followed by NVDA at $17.7M and BEKE at $15.0M. The overall dollar lean is firmly bullish with no single bearish name matching the top bullish prints.

Dark Pool Heat Map

Dark Pool Side Accuracy

The prints shown here represent filtered institutional block activity from the raw SIP tape. Extended-hours clearing prints, broker-matched crosses, and post-close settlement noise are removed before scoring. Side direction is classified using execution price relative to the live bid/ask at each print — the AGG% score shows how decisively price crossed the spread: 100% swept the ask, 0% hit the bid.

Prints marked ◆ carry the highest conviction. A corresponding options hedge was detected on the same name within 30 seconds, independently confirming both the block and its direction via Black-Scholes delta matching. Where the options tape and dark pool agree on the same name simultaneously, the signal is institutional across both markets.

For unconfirmed prints, side is a strong inference. Confidence is highest in liquid, tight-spread names. In wide markets or lower-ADV names, treat direction as context rather than conviction until corroborated by the options tape or the technical picture.

Read more

The SPY is on its 6th consecutive close above the 21 EMA and sitting at 776.86, well clear of that 769.26 level. The stack is clean, 8 EMA at 773.42 is the nearest dynamic support to watch on any intraday dip. VIX at 14.9 tells you there is no fear in this market right now. Price is also comfortably above the 50 day at 766.25 and the 200 day is way down at 719.65, so the broader trend is not in question.

Top Setups — 3 Signals

AMAT — BULL · MEGA

Puts Sold · Strike: 395.0 · Exp: Nov26 27th · 3030 contracts · $1.3M

Someone sold 3,030 contracts of the Nov 395 puts for about $1.3M in notional, a clear institutional bet that AMAT holds well above that strike. The chart backs it up, price at 510.25 is above the 50 day and the EMA stack is aligned with the 8 EMA at 514.92 and 21 EMA at 498.24 both trending higher. The 100 SMA around 515 is the near-term resistance to watch, but the weekly structure with higher highs and higher lows on both the 50 and 200 week keeps the bull case intact.

Read more

What a mess in the markets today! The day started with a global bond scare made worse by comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and oil spiking. Then we got relief from an okay 30 year UST auction (phew) and then out of the blue we got carpet bombed early afternoon after it was revealed that OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate is roughly $50 billion, which is about $20 billion short of the $70 billion figures circulating in prior media reports.

SPY is printing its 5th consecutive close above the 21 EMA, holding a clean stack with price above all key MAs. The 8 EMA at 772.43 is acting as near-term support on today’s -0.42% pull. Gap between the 50 SMA at 765.51 and current price is wide enough to absorb further softness without breaking structure. Bulls remain in control of the tape.

QQQ is on a 16-session streak above the 21 EMA but is pulling harder today at -1.34%, slipping below the 8 EMA at 749.23. Price at 747.58 is still well above the 21 EMA at 738.50, so structure is intact despite the intraday weakness. A close back above the 8 EMA keeps this trend clean. Bears need a break of 738.50 to shift the conversation.

VIX 15.41 (+2.19%)

Opening

Bullish premium at $269.8M is more than double the bearish side at $116.9M, producing a $152.9M net bull read. Semis are driving the bullish conviction with MU, INTC, and AMD combining for over $54M. Bearish flow is scattered with no single sector dominating the sell side.

Read more

The SPY is sitting on its 5th consecutive close above the 21 EMA and the trend is in good shape. Price is at 774.79, the 8 EMA is at 772.62, and the full stack is ordered bullishly with the 50 day at 765.53 and the 200 day well below at 719.17. VIX at 15.3 keeps the environment calm. We got a strong push early this week through 779 and today is a mild pullback, holding right at the 8 EMA intraday. As long as we stay above that level, this is just digestion in an uptrend. We have the 30 year UST auction at 1 pm - fingers crossed that doesn’t tail and destroy my optimism. Oil and global bonds are still a big worry here.

Read more

Read more